Experts say it is “not desirable” to ease Covid-19 restrictions in Auckland, amid concerns that contact tracing and our hospitals are seeing strain.
This afternoon, Cabinet will review its in-principle decision to move Auckland to step 2 of the phased alert level 3 restrictions from 11.59pm Tuesday, November 9.
At step 2, people remain working and schooling from home where possible, but retail and public facilities (such as libraries and museums) can open, and outdoor gatherings can extend to 25 people.
Epidemiologist, University of Otago (Wellington) Professor Michael Baker said the next three weeks are “critical” for Auckland, and from a public health perspective you wouldn’t want to see any restrictions loosened.
Baker said we are still seeing an “exponential” increase in Auckland’s outbreak.
There were 964 new cases in Auckland in the seven days to Sunday, more than 80 days into lockdown.
He said contact tracing is “not keeping up” – seen on Saturday in particular, where fewer than a quarter of the record-high 206 cases had epidemiological links.
“The fact contact tracing has slowed down means inevitably taking some brakes off the virus. Step 2 also takes some pressure off.”
Increasing vaccination coverage is helping, but even at 90 per cent of first doses there is a large proportion of people unvaccinated – not just the other 10 per cent, but all those under the age of 12 – which the virus can transmit through “very rapidly”.
Moving to step 2 is a “real judgment call”.
The epidemiological evidence is that it is “not desirable” to loosen restrictions right now, he said.
However, as far as relaxing restrictions go, the jump isn’t as large as the move from step 2 to step 3 – something Baker “can’t even contemplate” before Auckland moves into the traffic light.
Indoor environments like retail can be managed, but there will inevitably be a lot more mixing in poorly-ventilated areas, he said.
READ MORE
- One person isolating at home in Auckland dies with COVID-19
- Counties Manukau reaches 90 pct first doses of COVID-19 vaccine
- Covid detected in wastewater samples in Napier, Gisborne
- 'I'm not anti-vax, I just don't like getting told what to do'
He believed the Government’s strategy is “quite vulnerable” if Auckland hits December with very high case numbers: “it is a real threat”.
“To ensure the strategy succeeds, the Government should look very hard at keeping the brakes on the virus in the next few weeks” – particularly keeping schools closed, he said.
The plan to ease the country from elimination to suppression, through the traffic light system, all hinges on case numbers being manageable in Auckland through to the end of the month – when it is estimated the region could move into the new framework, he said.
Auckland is teetering on the edge of hitting 90 per cent first dose coverage across its three health boards, with Counties Manukau DHB just 192 vaccine doses away as of Sunday.
Stuff modelling indicates that, at the current rate of vaccination, all three of Auckland’s DHBs will hit 90 per cent double-doses by December 3.
If cases continue to grow dramatically, Baker said the Government might need to think about delaying moving into the traffic light system.
Te Pūnaha Matatini Covid-19 modeller and physics professor at the University of Auckland, Shaun Hendy, said we have not yet seen cases peak.
The trend is “rising”, and we haven’t yet seen the “pause” we would like to. Any relaxation of restrictions will result in continued growth, he said.
Hendy believed Cabinet would likely go ahead with the in-principle decision despite this, particularly given the commitment it has already made to the traffic light system.
“They are firmly on a path to relax things,” and will “probably continue that way this week,” he said.
Hendy expected retail re-opening to also give rise to increased cases.
There will need to be precautions in place such as limiting customers, improving ventilation (where possible) and masking to lower the risk.
The effective reproductive number (how many people an infected person will pass the virus on to, on average) continues to sit about 1.2-1.3.
“Certainly, [we have] not seen a slowing down in growth of numbers,” Hendy said.
If we were to “hold the line” on restrictions, the modelling suggests we would see a ‘peak’ before the Christmas period, he said.
Hendy cautioned that we are “getting into the territory where we [will] see strain on the hospital system”.
The fact that the outbreak is largely confined to Auckland gives the Government some wriggle-room, in that cases can be moved out of the region if the system becomes overwhelmed – which could happen in the coming weeks, he said.
Cabinet will also review alert level settings for upper Northland, which has been in alert level 3 since Tuesday. Waikato’s settings will not be reviewed until Monday, November 15.
