New Zealand’s general election is only part-complete with 20% of votes still to count.

While it is clear that the government will change, what the shape of the replacement administration will be won’t be known until early November. A clean National/ACT coalition is unlikely unless the historical trend of special votes favouring the political left is bucked.

It is more than likely that New Zealand will have three parties in Government and the main question is which of ACT and NZ First will take the Supply and Confidence option. Either way, this is going to be a government with less momentum for change than it might have wished and which the country needs.

Defence and national security risks being among the portfolios that are pushed to the side during the next few months. As I’ve said often, with acquisition cycles as long as they are we cannot afford to let politicians wave their hand at the distant map of the next budget in May.

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National has enough party vote for 50 MPs. They hold 45 electorates giving them space for only 5 list MPs. As at election night, they will be Willis, Goldsmith, Lee, Brownlee and Lu. If they lose an MP to specials they will pick it up again once Port Waikato is resolved. Three seats (Te Atatu, Nelson and Banks Peninsula) are too close to call but currently held by National with fewer than 100 votes each. If these all flip to Labour, Loheni, Chatterton and Christmas will become MPs. Of course there is an outside chance of marginally held Labour seats like Ohariu and Mt Albert going to National which would reduce blue list slots.

The Executive Council – Cabinet Plus – is usually around 28 members. ACT and NZ First will likely want 7-8 of those positions between them. Both parties will want some Committee Chair roles and perhaps Parliamentary Under-Secretaries – the latter are an excellent mechanism for distributing workload and providing Ministerial-level exposure for relatively inexperience MPs.

It is too early to say where portfolios like defence, veterans, GCSB & SIS will land. National is unlikely to give up the chair of the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee. Because of coverage of his uniformed background, former defence spokesman Chris Penk is seen by many as a likely Defence Minister. However, if prior service or affinity is a factor, there are other potential contenders.

Dr Shane Reti served four years part-time in the Army while at Medical School in Auckland. Andrew Bayly served as a reserve officer in both the NZ Army and 3 Para in the UK. Penny Simmonds also has several years’ part-time Army service behind her. Joseph Mooney is another former Army reservist and he has previously held the veterans portfolio. Although the party’s defence spokesperson for a time, Tim Van de Molen is unlikely to be in Cabinet following his censure by the Privileges Committee earlier this year.

Gerry Brownlee is a former Defence Minister but will most likely be the Speaker of the House. Mark Mitchell could also hold defence once again but seems more likely destined for Police Minister and the two portfolios don’t sit well together. Don’t discount Judith Collins from this mix either despite no uniformed service.