"Distance certainly is no longer any protection for New Zealand, not when we have an intercontinental ballistic missile launched in the South Pacific, not when ships with enormous strike power come into our backyard," Defense Minister Judith Collins told reporters at a Monday press conference.

SYDNEY — New Zealand, the small island state south of Australia, has long spent little on defense, but the conservative government there has decided to double its spending over the next eight years, committing to $9 billion NZD ($5 billion USD) in new spending in the first four years.

“Global tensions are increasing rapidly, and New Zealand has stepped up on the world stage, but our current Defense spending is simply too low,” Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said in a statement on Monday, unveiling a newly published defense plan. “This will raise New Zealand’s defense spending from just over one per cent of GDP to more than two per cent in the next eight years.”

Luxon said the plan will be reviewed every two years. “Put simply, this is the floor, not the ceiling, of funding for our Defense Force,” he said.

The documents accompanying the defense plan point directly to China as the threat driving the increased spending.

“China’s assertive pursuit of its strategic objectives is the principal driver for strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, and it continues to use all of its tools of statecraft in ways that can challenge both international norms of behaviour and the security of other states,” the statement says. “Of particular concern is the rapid and non-transparent growth of China’s military capability.”

In particular, one event may have played an oversized role in the government’s decision to double spending: when China launched an ICMB into the Pacific in September, the first such action in 44 years.

“Distance certainly is no longer any protection for New Zealand, not when we have an intercontinental ballistic missile launched in the South Pacific, not when ships with enormous strike power come into our backyard,” Defense Minister Judith Collins told reporters at a Monday press conference unveiling the commitment.

Second on the threat barometer is climate change, one which the Pacific Islands all view as existential. New Zealand is closely tied to one of the island states, the Cook Islands. New Zealand is supposed to help run their foreign policy and national security and the local residents of the remote islands are New Zealand citizens.

While the commitment is certainly genuine, a pledge by one government in a parliamentary democracy is not necessarily a commitment by the next government, as Australia has demonstrated, Malcolm Davis, a regional defense expert at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, noted.

“In terms of likelihood of being realized, it’s impossible to know — as has happened with past Australian defense white papers (I’m thinking 2009 in particular). It’s one thing to have a plan; it’s another to properly fund it and see it enacted,” he said in an email. “But clearly the ‘current’ NZ government does see a worsening threat environment as demanding a response in rethinking their defense policy to ensure NZ is better prepared to meet traditional threats – and not just do disaster relief or climate change related operations.”

New Zealand Aims To Modernize, ‘Simplify’ Its Naval Fleet

So should the money come through, what weapons does New Zealand plan to spend it on?

The nation’s Defense Capability Plan 2025, also revealed Monday, does not specify the platforms the country plans to buy, but much of the focus will be on New Zealand’s tiny navy.

“Most of the current ships in the Royal New Zealand Navy fleet will reach the end of their intended design life by the mid-2030s,” the plan notes. And the fleet is not standardized, comprising “eight ships across five classes, with many aspects of unique and customized design.”

So the plan is to “simplify the fleet, including the potential for a common hull design for the frigate and patrol vessel replacement […].” Working with Australia on that venture and others is an option, and is part of a fundamental effort by two of the Five Eyes countries to create a “more greatly integrated ‘Anzac’ force. This means they will combine military forces in defense of shared interests, common values, and territory.”

The plan says the “future fleet will be able to deliver maritime combat, maritime patrol, maritime security, sealift, hydrography and diving support, support to other government agencies, and support to humanitarian and disaster events.” Most of it will be manned, but the government says it will explore unmanned options.

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Initially, the government plans to extend the life of the Anzac frigates HMNZS Te Kaha and Te Mana into the early 2030s. The maintenance work “is planned to progress incrementally, aiming to ensure the frigates are available for training, operations, and contingencies.” That should, the defense plan says, cost somewhere between $300 million NZD and $600 million NZD. Davis said that replacing the frigates “is going to be vital with their current vessels approaching obsolescence.”

Next on the list is buying “surveillance from uncrewed surface vessels” to “complement traditional crewed ships and aircraft and provide a persistent capability.” It sounds like a capability designed for homeland security type operations, providing maritime domain awareness and “support for other government agencies> doing resource protection and “countering transnational criminal activity.”

“It will provide a better visibility of activities in the region (thereby enhancing deterrence by detection), and allow for more targeted, effective, and efficient use of traditional crewed platforms” for between $50 million and $100 million NZD.

Luxon’s National Party government plans to buy “long-range remotely piloted aircraft” designed to cover vast swaths of territory and ocean. The estimated cost is projected to be $100 million NZD to $300 million. For that, Davis said he believes the Kiwis “may invest in something like [the] MQ-9B Sea Guardian” made by General Atomics.

Building a network for the New Zealand Army is another major commitment, this one for between $300 million NZD and $600 million NZD. This will involve buying “upgraded radios with improved network capabilities” and “improved network infrastructure” to tie together the “individual soldier to Headquarters Joint Forces New Zealand.”

Along with the army network, New Zealand plans to improve its “cyber security capabilities” to the tune of $100 million NZD to $300 million NZD.

The goal is “to ensure that the NZDF remains a credible and trusted partner, can operate effectively, and deliver military effects while deployed.” That may well be a reference to the importance of secure networks and communications for the Five Eyes partner, since that is the intelligence foundation of the gathering of the US, Canada, Britain, Australia and New Zealand.