The New Zealand government has announced a complete overhaul and universal rebuild of its military forces and defence infrastructure.

Government leadership unveiled the 2025 Defence Capability Plan on 7 April: modernise a combat-capable New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF), lift the percentage of defence spend on GDP to 2 per cent over the next eight years and spend more than $12 billion on major capability and critical supports over the next four years.

The 15-year plan is understood to be reviewed every two years, beginning in 2027.

Key investments outlined in the plan over the 2025 to 2028 period include increased strike capabilities, innovation in uncrewed vehicles, new space technologies and increased funding for Defence Science & Technology.

In addition, the plan advocates funding for a frigate sustainment programme, replacement of maritime helicopters, Javelin anti-tank missile upgrades, network enabled army, NZDF vehicles, counter UAS, Boeing 757 fleet replacement, cyber security and space capabilities, Defence estate regeneration and Defence housing programme, Future Devonport naval base design and Information management.

“For decades, New Zealand has enjoyed a world underpinned by an international rules-based order that reflected our values, protected our interests, and supported our ambitions. We now face a very different world,” NZ Defence Minister Judith Collins said, announcing the plan.

“A world where our personnel are expected to be called upon more often, in more places, for longer. For this, they must be equipped and trained for a range of operations, to be more combat capable, and able to deter actions adverse to our interests while also being ready to provide essential humanitarian assistance and disaster response.

And importantly, the Labour opposition leader, former Prime Minister Hopkins, has basically come out and endorsed the whole thing in the media ... The fact that there is bipartisan support is really important.

“We should never rule out that we may need to defend ourselves. We need a defence force that is able not only to respond in a crisis but also to maintain stability in our region, support our Pacific neighbours, contribute to upholding the existing international rules-based order, deter potential threats, and work with others to increase resilience in our region.

“During the next four years, there will be a planned commitment of $12 billion on Defence capability and enablers, including a $9 billion increase to baseline funding.

“Indicative investments over the next 15 years have been outlined to show our intent for the force of the future and we are committed to pacing investments as quickly as our fiscal situation allows.

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“We will rebuild the NZDF to ensure it has the support it needs, and purchase the right capability at the right time to ensure our personnel can use it to maximum effect ... Investment in our nation’s security must be enduring.

“All of this is essential to prepare for challenges that we as a country and as a region face now, and into the future.”

Changes to the salaries of NZDF were also alluded to by Minister Collins, who highlighted that such alterations would instead be outlined in the next NZ budget on May 22 this year, while modification of New Zealand’s nuclear policy was explicitly ruled out.

Too little, too late?

Minister Collins is dead right when she says that the NZDF requires a rebuild and a break from its traditional boom and bust cycle. The military already has numerous ‘care and protection’ programs where funding and political will has deteriorated over the last few decades since the end of the Cold War (not unlike Australia’s own military).

The NZDF has openly confirmed it struggles to retain experienced personnel and outpace a competitive labour market. In an open indication of those shortfalls, it currently has three naval warships (HMNZS Otago, HMNZS Wellington and HMNZS Hawea) idle in port without the personnel to crew them; alongside the recent salt in the wound of sinking its own survey vessel, HMNZS Manawanui, off Samoa last year.

Ross Browne, director of New Zealand defence and national security public affairs firm Museum Street Strategies, said the 2025 Capability Plan was extraordinary in its scope compared to previous defence priorities in New Zealand.

“Extraordinary in one sense, because they’re (government leaders) using language and talking about things (defence capability) they haven’t talked about since the very early 1990s ... It’s definitely a cultural shift,” he said.

“There’s always been a sort of normal rhythm of replacement [of military equipment]. But there’s much more urgency being displayed now. The languages has been progressively more dramatic about the official view of the region.

“And importantly, the Labour opposition leader, former Prime Minister Hopkins, has basically come out and endorsed the whole thing in the media ... The fact that there is bipartisan support is really important.

“Two percent (of defence spend GDP) in the context of what they’ve been spending historically, that’s a big uplift ... and is quite a dramatic increase in terms of what that delivers.

“Things are really changing, and of course, the world has become more volatile after COVID than it was looking like it was when the 2019 plan was released ... So you need a whole lot of options, and it was becoming pretty obvious that there just weren’t enough options for government for any given scenario.

“I think that the rhetoric coming from both the Prime Minister and the Defence Minister ... is a strong signal that it’s time to change how we’re doing things.”

The recent actions of the People’s Republic of China could be considered a major contributor to this new defence planning response.

The PRC has previously launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (with dummy warhead) within the exclusive economic zone of French Polynesia late last year, as well as the recent circumnavigation of Australia by a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Task Group 107 comprised of the Jiangka Class frigate Hengyang, the Renhai Class Cruiser Zunyi, and the Fuchi Class replenishment vessel Weishanhu.

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“The Indo-Pacific is a primary geographical theatre for strategic competition, most visibly between China and the United States. China’s assertive pursuit of its strategic objectives is the principal driver for strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, and it continues to use all of its tools of statecraft in ways that can challenge both international norms of behaviour and the security of other states,” the report read.

“Of particular concern is the rapid and non-transparent growth of China’s military capability. States within the Indo-Pacific and globally are responding to these pressures by increasingly investing in their own military and security capabilities, deepening and broadening their bilateral and multinational security partnerships, and adopting sharper security postures.”

Specifically outlined in the report, the NZ government is investing (indicative cost $100-300 million) in the procurement of new missile systems (maritime and long-range) to respond to the deteriorating security environment. Options include arming existing air and maritime platforms with missiles, such as the P-8A Poseidon fleet and the Anzac frigates or exploring other land-based strike options.

The NZDF would also explore replacement of the Army’s 105mm light gun, lifetime extension of its Anzac frigates ($300 to 600 million), persistent surface and sub-surface surveillance systems to complement uncrewed and crewed surface vessels ($50 to 100 million), replacement of Super Seasprite maritime helicopters ($2 billion plus), replacement of Javelin anti-tank missiles (up to $50 million), replacement of NZDF vehicles ($600 million to 1 billion) and establishment of an information warfare academy among other priorities.

“Global tensions are increasing rapidly, and New Zealand has stepped up on the world stage, but our current Defence spending is simply too low,” the country’s Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, said.

“This new Defence Capability Plan contains $12 billion of funding over the next four years, which includes $9 billion of new spending. This will raise New Zealand’s defence spending from just over one per cent of GDP to more than two per cent in the next eight years.

“This blueprint has been designed with a 15-year horizon but deliberately focuses on critical investments needed in the next four years to ensure our Defence Force can adapt as the world around us changes.

“The government has committed to reviewing the plan every two years. Put simply, this is the floor, not the ceiling, of funding for our Defence Force.

“I want to acknowledge our coalition partners, New Zealand First and ACT, for their unwavering support in advancing this plan, and note New Zealand First previously drove the procurement of our new P-8A and Hercules aircraft.”