New Zealand currently has one of the highest Omicron R numbers in the world, according to Covid-19 modellers.
The R number is the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to. When the R number is above one, the virus is spreading, when it’s below one the virus is slowing down.
According to Rako Science’s Covid-19 Modeller, on Saturday, New Zealand had an R value of 3.54, meaning the average person infected with Omicron would pass it on to more than three people.
Out of more than 180 countries this gave New Zealand the current highest R value, with Myanmar coming in second with a value of 3.19.
According to the model, only a handful of countries are currently experiencing an Omicron surge including New Zealand, Myanmar, China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Oman.
January 7 was the first time New Zealand’s R value had climbed to more than one since November 20, during the Delta outbreak.
The only other time New Zealand’s R value was over one was at the beginning of the pandemic from March 22, 2020 until March 29 the same year.
READ MORE
- Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern denies new plan to ease COVID-19 vaccine mandates was in response to Parliament protest
- Vaccine mandates important because 'we still have Delta'
- World data shows mixed results of the severity of variant BA.2 known as 'stealth Omicron'
- Omicron on Castle Street: Dunedin students confused after some refused COVID-19 tests
Rako Science executive director Leon Grice said it wasn’t surprising New Zealand currently had such a high R value, as it was often seen at the beginning of a surge of the virus.
For example, New South Wales in Australia, had its highest R value of 3.72 on Christmas day. It was now sitting at 0.74.
Grice said theoretically, Omicron had an R value of 10 if no Covid-19 precautions were taken, meaning on average each case would pass the virus to 10 others.
This means it is far more infectious than the original virus which had an R value of 2.5, and Delta which had an R value of five or six.
“Right now we’re seeing a big rise in case numbers even in Summer which shows how infectious Omicron is,” Grice said, “if it was happening in Winter when we were all inside more without doors and windows open I think it’d be much worse.”
On Saturday, there were 13,606 new cases of the virus within New Zealand – almost 1500 more cases than were announced on Friday.
Saturday’s case load, while still an increase on Friday’s total, did not see as high a jump as days past, where increases of near 3000 and 6000 overnight saw daily cases double for two consecutive days.
The total number of active cases is 52,808, among a total of 70,000 confirmed cases of the virus since the pandemic began.
Despite these numbers, Grice believed New Zealand still wasn’t close to the peak of cases, which he said was likely to happen mid to late March.
”While cases may still have a way to go to reach the peak it’s possible the R value may still fall, but I suspect it hasn’t peaked yet either.”
