The New Zealand government published its Defence Capability Plan (DCP) on 7 April, a document that had been delayed for many months. The DCP is essentially a blueprint listing investment in the military for the next 15 years, aligning with national strategy. The plan includes much-needed boosts to naval capabilities.
At the launch of the DCP, Prime Minister Chris Luxon said, “Global tensions are increasing rapidly, and New Zealand has stepped up on the world stage, but our current defence spending is simply too low.” The plan thus promises NZ$12 billion (US$6.65 billion) in defence spending over the coming four years, of which NZ$9 billion is new expenditure. The result will see defence as a proportion of GDP rise from the current 1% to slightly more than 2% within eight years. Luxon said this “is the floor, not the ceiling, of funding for our defence force”.
The DCP focuses foremost on critical investments needed by the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) in the coming four years, as well as the following ten-year timeframe. The government also vowed to update the DCP every two years; the DCP prior to this one appeared six years ago in 2019.
Three key aims for the NZDF are delineated. Firstly, it must be combat capable with enhanced lethality and a deterrent effect. Secondly, NZ’s military must be a force multiplier with Australia and interoperable with partners, including a more tightly integrated “Anzac” force. Finally, the NZDF must be innovative and obtain improved situational awareness.
Attrition of skilled personnel spiked because military personnel were involved in prolonged manning of managed isolation facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Defence Minister Judith Collins noted, “That has left us with a hollowed-out middle in our personnel, and this plan allows us to address that. Already our attrition has fallen from 15.8% in December 2022 to 7.5% in February 2025 – but we know we need to rebuild the core of the NZDF so we can fully utilise the ships, aircraft, vehicles and weapons we already have, while looking to what is needed in the future.”
As already mentioned, a key point in the DCP is the commitment to more closely align the NZDF with Australia. It stated, “This means the two countries will combine military forces in defence of shared interests, common values and territory. This will include the introduction of more common, complementary and increasingly interoperable capability, further entrenching our ability to act together in support of shared interests.”
Elsewhere, the DCP noted, “New Zealand will seek to procure the same assets and equipment as Australia where it makes sense to do so. This will help with interoperability.” Observers should therefore closely monitor Australia’s procurement decisions, for they will likely have a heavy bearing on what the NZDF decides too.
What specific naval capabilities for the Royal New Zealand Navy (RNZN) were highlighted in the DCP from 2025-28 then? The main items are listed below.
1. Enhanced strike capabilities.
As the threat environment worsens, the NZDF needs new missile systems “to provide a deterrent effect to adversaries and an ability to respond to hostile vessels at a greater range”. Over the next four years, the NZDF is therefore looking at strike capabilities, particularly in the maritime domain. Options listed are arming the air force’s four P-8A Poseidon aircraft and the RNZN’s two Anzac-class frigates. The latter is long overdue, as the frigates are rather toothless; their anti-ship strike capacity comes from Super Seasprite helicopters carrying a maximum of two Penguin missiles. The DCP said other options, including land-based strike, are being explored too.
READ MORE
- New Zealand to boost defence spending
- New Zealand’s Defense Spending To Reach 2% GDP By 2032 Under New Plan
- New Zealand vows to play catch-up on defense investments
- New Zealand vows to play catch-up on defense investments
Given that the DCP said, “Defence will explore acquiring the same capabilities as Australia or partners, who are enhancing their capabilities in this area,” then some weapons that Australia is acquiring would make sense for New Zealand too. This includes the likes of the AGM-158C LRASM for P-8As and Naval Strike Missile (NSM) for frigates. Australia also has a land-based maritime strike requirement, where the NSM-firing StrikeMaster and HIMARS-launched Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) are leading contenders. New Zealand will presumably be closely following that project.
Some NZ$100-300 million is set aside for maritime strike. The subsequent 2029-39 timeframe will include refreshes to strike systems already operational by then, plus the possibility of delivering the long-range missile capability from multiple domains.
2. Frigate sustainment programme.
The RNZN operates two Anzac-class frigates and, although Australia is beginning to retire its fleet of eight Anzacs, the Kiwi warships must soldier on into the early 2030s. This will entail further maintenance and upgrades to extend their lives. The DCP noted, “This allows for the full benefits of the recently completed combat system upgrades of the frigates to be met, prior to their replacement.”
Furthermore, the navy does not want them out of service for prolonged periods, so maintenance and modifications must be implemented incrementally so that the frigates remain available for operations. Some NZ$300-600 million is set aside for the frigate upgrade.
The presence of a Chinese naval task group performing gunnery in the Tasman Sea in February caused alarm bells in the corridors of power. In a veiled reference to China, the DCP noted: “New Zealand’s geographic isolation no longer shelters us from threats to the extent it once did. We are seeing increasing threats to, and through, our extensive maritime area of interest. In addition to the risk of illegal activities, we face the increasing prospect of hostile forces operating in our wider maritime domain in ways that are coercive and threatening.”
Furthermore, the DCP promised greater focus on uncrewed systems in the short and medium term. “This includes long-range uncrewed aerial vehicles [UAV] to provide more persistent maritime surveillance; uncrewed vertical-take-off-and-landing aircraft to replace some maritime helicopter tasks; and uncrewed surface and subsurface vessels to help monitor and protect our exclusive economic zone, and support our Pacific partners.”
Uncrewed surface vessels will complement crewed vessels and aircraft. The RNZN is already trialling Bluebottle USVs obtained from Ocius Technologies. More generally, the DCP stated, “These systems may be deployed from crewed ships to enhance their effective sensor range, and/or independently for multiple months to enhance the NZDF’s maritime domain awareness and in support of other government agencies constabulary missions such as countering transnational criminal activity and resource protection.”
“is the floor, not the ceiling, of funding for our defence force”.
NZ is required to monitor ocean territory stretching from the Equator to Antarctica, and “persistent uncrewed surveillance capabilities provide the NZDF and other government agencies with better awareness and targeting”. Some NZ$50-100 million is set aside for this capability in the next four years. Later, in the 2029-39 period, the RNZN will give greater consideration to subsurface autonomous systems. This might put underwater platforms like Australia’s Ghost Shark from Anduril in the frame.
The NZDF wants long-range UAVs in the next four years. These would support both land and maritime forces “with improved and persistent intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance over longer distances, including in the Pacific and Southern Ocean”. A figure of NZ$100-300 million is listed for such assets from 2025-28, and even more will be needed in the following decade.
4. Replacing maritime helicopters.
The RNZN relies upon eight second-hand Kaman SH-2G(I) Super Seasprite helicopters, but these ageing aircraft are increasingly difficult to maintain. Eyeing their eventual replacement in mid-2027, Wellington issued a request for information on 24 April 2023, with responses due in July that year.
The DCP noted, “Maritime helicopters are a core part of the frigates’ capability as they increase the platform’s defensive and offensive abilities. They also extend the frigates’ surveillance range, overall weapon capability, and ability to support noncombat tasks like humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.” At least NZ$2 billion is allocated for this procurement, making it the most expensive listing in this year’s DCP.
If commonality with Australia is an important consideration, this would enhance the prospects of the MH-60R, of which Australia will have 36 flying by the end of 2026 and the in-country ability to sustain them. However, the NZDF has indicated that uncrewed systems will also be considered to increase the number of deployable aircraft and attain greater ranges.
5. Future replacement vessels from 2029-39.
After the unfortunate loss of HMNZS Manawanui in Samoan waters in October 2024, the RNZN now has just eight vessels encompassing five classes, and nearly all are due for replacement by the mid-2030s. A Maritime Fleet Renewal programme is under way to investigate options for modernising and simplifying the fleet. A common hull design for future frigates and patrol vessels is one possibility, for instance. While most will be crewed vessels, uncrewed ones are also being considered.
The RNZN has stated that HMNZS Manawanui will not be replaced. Instead, its hydrographic and diving roles will be transferred to other platforms. The multirole vessel HMNZS Canterbury will be up for replacement in the 2029-39 timeframe, as will the two frigates and two offshore patrol vessels. The DCP said, “The Anzac frigates will be replaced with comparable contemporary frigates and the offshore patrol vessels will also be replaced with consideration given to whether commonality of design or systems with the frigates may be possible.” A common design would maximise crew training, qualification and flexibility, and minimise maintenance and support. If interoperability with Australia is deemed critical, then the latter’s selection of a general-purpose frigate – either the Japanese Improved Mogami or German Meko A-200 – will be closely observed in NZ.
Strategic interest in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean is growing, so the RNZN aims to put back on the table a requirement for a Southern Ocean patrol vessel somewhere in 2029-39. Current vessels do not fully meet this requirement, but a dedicated Southern Ocean vessel “would broaden the patrol area and enhance our awareness of what is occurring in the Southern Ocean. This could include a combination of uncrewed technologies, deployable boarding teams and platforms.”
6. Future Devonport Naval Base design.
The RNZN has only one naval base, located in Devonport on Auckland’s North Shore. Up to NZ$50 million will be spent on upgraded facilities there, focusing on “upgraded and modern training environments, upgraded secure facilities and office spaces, and operational areas, including wharves, jetties and the dockyard, that are fit for purpose for the navy’s updated vessels and personnel,” according to the DCP.
