Russia has in place about 70 percent of the combat power it believes it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is sending more battalion tactical groups to the border with its neighbour, two US officials say.
The Russian air force conducting exercises in the Western Military District, near the Ukraine border, on 24 January 2022. Photo: AFP / Eyepress News
In the last two weeks, the number of battalion tactical groups (BTG) in the border region has risen to 83 from 60 as of Friday and 14 more are in transit, the officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information.
As to the timing of an invasion, the ground is expected to reach peak freeze around 15 February, the officials said, allowing for off-road mechanised transit by Russian military units. Such conditions would continue until the end of March.
That timeline and the growing number and capability of Russian forces close to Ukraine could suggest the window for diplomacy is shutting.
The US officials did not provide evidence to back up their estimates of Russia's forces.
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As Russia masses more than 100,000 troops near the border, it has said it is not planning an invasion but could take unspecified military action if its security demands are not met. Those include a promise that NATO will never admit Ukraine, a demand Washington and NATO have said is unacceptable.
Washington believes Russia may choose other options than a full-scale invasion, including a limited incursion, and does not believe President Vladimir Putin has made a final decision, the officials said.
But they said Putin is putting in place a force that can execute all scenarios.
If Russia were to invade the capital of Kyiv, it could fall within a couple of days, the US officials said.
A full-scale invasion would cause major casualties, one of the officials said.
Ukraine could suffer 5000 to 25,000 troop casualties, while Russia's troop casualties could be between 3000 and 10,000, and civilian casualties could range from 25,000 to 50,000, according to US estimates, the official said.
Volunteers of the 112th Territorial Defence Brigade of Kyiv in a military training in the outskirts of the city. Photo: AFP
A full invasion would also prompt the flight of millions of refugees and internally displaced persons in Europe, Washington believes.
Meanwhile, the first American troops have arrived in Poland as part of a deployment ordered by President Joe Biden to bolster NATO forces, as tensions over Russia's troop build-up on the Ukrainian border remain high.
