Analysis: Is the United States becoming less dependable as the world's most formidable defence backstop, and is New Zealand factoring that in?
Some world leaders and ex-leaders think the US is less reliable, after 10 days of geopolitical ructions centred on NATO.
Germany's likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz warned the political order NATO had been used to was crumbling, Reuters reported. "Will the Americans still be there?" Merz said at a campaign event in Darmstadt.
"Eight weeks ago I would not have dared to ask this question, but today we have to give an answer to it."
Ministers in New Zealand, asked about US dependability by RNZ, did not answer directly.
Local Ukrainians spoke of feeling shock and betrayal, and others closer to the war in Europe are grappling with it.
Independent policy institute Chatham House in London, in analysis following the Munich Security Conference, said Trump had made clear that friends and allies "count for nothing".
"When the initial shock subsides, the significance of the change in US policy that this represents will sink in."
The concerns "about the reliability of the US as an ally" revolved around the new administration opening talks with Russia without involving Ukraine or EU allies, expecting European countries to enforce a future agreement without US backing, and attacking the EU on trade, technology and freedom of speech, it said.
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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky a few days ago warned: "We can't rule out the possibility that America might say 'no' to Europe on issues that threaten it."
Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull asserted the United States had become less dependable.
"Trump is saying you can't always count on us. You've got to do more yourself," said Turnbull, in calling the AUKUS defence pact a very bad deal for Australia.
Turnbull, the prime minister from 2015 to 2018, told the ABC: "We have to recognize the world has changed, America has changed.
"And we cannot assume that we can rely on America in the way we have in the past."
What about New Zealand?
Three powerful Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea in recent days have brought the stakes closer to home.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters, asked by RNZ if he considered the US was or might be a less reliable partner for security in the IndoPacific, did not address the question directly.
Instead, a spokesperson said: "The United States is a close and long-standing partner. "New Zealand works constructively with the US across a range of areas including foreign policy and security.
"New Zealand and the US have common strategic and security challenges in the IndoPacific region and around the world. Bilateral and regional collaboration is important in managing those challenges," they said.
NATO members could say the same thing, but they and others are also very clear they see the ground shifting under them under Trump.
"The upside is that he is ready to shake up the game board," leading US commentator Thomas Friedman told the New York Times.
But "everything is purely transactional".
"He looks at the world really like it's the retail section in a Trump Tower. You know: 'Hey, Mr. France, you're not paying enough rent for your baguette shop'."
Defence spending
The shift in Europe was consistent with Trump's pre-election threats: That he would not protect European allies who did not spend enough on defence.
Yet a year ago he went even further, saying if he was elected, he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to any NATO country that did not pay enough.
Applied to the Indo-Pacific, New Zealand would be exposed, with its low defence spending.
The government has continued to drip feed the public over that, with Defence Minister Judith Collins most recently saying it would be a "big budget item" for the coalition.
Collins said on Friday the renewed US pivot to the Indo-Pacific was significant.
This was dubbed the "so long Europe" strategy where the Pentagon prioritised deals and weapons supply in the Indopacific, by the European Union Institute for Security Studies.
This fit with the new US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth's view, to focus on China not Russia, it said.
But what is the nature of this giant partner and backstop that is pivoting?
Collins, asked about US dependability, in an interview about the Chinese warships, told Morning Report on Monday:
"I don't think there's any reason to expect that the US has not pivoted towards the Pacific for a reason.
"I think we can see what's happened in the Cook Islands as a very unusual move again from China ...
"It is a challenging time being a small nation and we have to make sure we do everything we can to look after ourselves and our near neighbours."
She also said China, the US and Australia were key trading partners, and the latter two were traditional defence partners.
"I'd be very aware that that is just going to continue," Collins said.
Like Peters, she did not directly address the question of whether if New Zealand's backstop has changed.
