ANALYSIS: If the National Party caucus needed any more evidence that replacing Judith Collins with Christopher Luxon was the right call, Thursday night’s 1 News Kantar Poll delivered it.

The National Party is now bettering Labour in the party vote for the first time since early 2020 - before the Covid-19 pandemic hit.

Three leaders later, it is the turnaround from late last year that is most significant. In the last 1 News poll before National changed leaders, it was polling at 28 per cent, with Labour on 41 per cent.

To pull in neck and neck is a significant achievement in less than four months, considering the unfocused and rambling tactics under Collins – as well as the generally dispirited nature of the party late last year.

https://www.scribd.com/document/563761302/Full-1News-Kantar-Public-Poll-Report-5-8-March-2022

On last night’s figures the Māori Party would hold the balance of power – assuming Rawiri Waititi regains the seat of Māori electorate of Waiariki.

In the same poll the Greens were steady on 9 per cent while ACT fell to 8 per cent.

Significantly, Luxon has also surged in the preferred prime minister ratings, scoring 24 compared to 36 for Jacinda Ardern – an eight point jump for the centre-right leader.

If forced to choose either Ardern or Luxon as preferred Prime Minister, 46 per cent chose Ardern while 45 per cent chose Luxon.

That’s not bad considering that within National Party caucus the general view is that while Luxon is doing pretty well, he still has much to learn and will most likely get much better.

The mood music to this poll has been the first genuine surge of Covid-19 in New Zealand; inflation running at 5.9 per cent; petrol over $3 per litre and a protest that sat festering on the lawn of Parliament for over three weeks before ending in a riot.

While Labour Party sources point to all of these things as a remarkable confluence of events, the poll implies that the public is now far less satisfied with how Labour is dealing with Covid and the economy.

Or at the very least, many people once again see National as a credible alternative.

None of this is particularly surprising. Labour has been steadily slipping since the elimination strategy was abandoned during the lockdown last year.

Turns out that dealing with Covid is difficult when you can’t just throw up the borders, keep it out and let life continue basically normally here. People get tired of changing rules, restrictions and just Covid more generally. In focus groups, there have been niggles over various things for several months.

The phase of Covid that we are in now is also simply harder and more divisive: the trade-offs are more difficult, solutions less clear. There is also the simple reality that Covid has meant Government – and those who lead it – have been much more in everyone’s face for the past two years than would be the case in more ordinary times. There could be some Ardern fatigue at play.

More generally, the result also shouldn't be a massive surprise. Prior to the great polling upheaval of 2020-2021, National had been the largest party in Parliament since 2008. Its structural support within the centre-right voting universe was simply higher than Labour’s which was buttressed by the Greens and some of NZ First.

The key difference between now and pre-Covid has been the demise of NZ First and the rise of the ACT Party – and to a lesser extent the re-election to The Māori Party. ACT’s party vote seems to be stabilising somewhere in the 8 per cent to 10 per cent range. Where this lands will affect how big National is.

In a close-run race, the Māori Party could well decide who is in Government.

The good news for Labour is that the election is still eighteen months away. While inflation looks like it might have settled by the second half this year, you wouldn't bet on it.

National’s “cost-of-living crisis” is a potent political issue regardless of whether people see it as a crisis. It is a real life thing that does affect everyone and is starting to sting most.

Labour has already said it is spending an extra $6 billion in the May Budget – ostensibly to fund big new health and climate change commitments.

Time to start making bets on how whether there will be a big wodge of “we feel your pain” cash, how big it will be, and what form it will take?