OPINION: Jacinda Ardern's election rallying cry was that climate change is the nuclear-free moment of her generation.

Two years on, the fall-out from her Government's attempts to cut greenhouse gas emissions could be about to go nuclear. 

Judith Collins set off the chain reaction when she was reported as saying she will vote against the keystone Zero Carbon Bill.

Simon Bridges then confirmed the National caucus is wavering in its initial support, and is yet to decide a position on the legislation's second reading. 

In August 2017 Jacinda Ardern said: "This is my generation's nuclear-free moment, and I am determined that we will tackle it head on."

A rabble of National MPs, most notably self-styled "climate enquirer" Matt King and agriculture spokesman Todd Muller, had already sent up smoke signals.

That followed rumblings from the membership at the party conference in July. 

You don't need a Farmer's Almanac to read the mood in rural communities. Most of the concern centres on a target to reduce methane by between 24-47 per cent by 2050, which the sector says is too high.

This is a sector currently heavily burdened with debt and uncertainty. They've endured a decade of criticism over dirty dairying, and are now facing changing global food trends and a possible economic slowdown. The one silver-lining is China's insatiable demand for New Zealand products.

On Thursday, Environment Minister David Parker will announce a comprehensive package of freshwater reforms, including tighter regulations.

In November he warned: "New rules will mean controls on the excesses of some intensive land use practices."

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Farmers have already begun to catastrophise with unfounded whispers the proposals will include bans In certain catchments.

A raft of angry opinion articles, full of wild speculation, questionable numbers and dodgy science, have recently begun to surface as the extreme elements in the sector looks to exert pressure on Parliament over the Zero Carbon Bill and emissions trading scheme.

Collins, the daughter of a Waikato dairy farmer, was ahead of the curve in harnessing that anger. In late July, she told a rural radio show the Government had thrown farmers under a bus. 

By taking such a public and decisive stance on climate change legislation, Collins is throwing down the gauntlet to Simon Bridges who has pussy-footed around his position. 

The disgruntled rural rump would be a powerful force to harness heading into the election.

Climate denial dinosaurs will be emboldened by news last week that the US Environmental Protection Agency plans to loosen regulations on methane.

It's an easy button for National to push. 

The anti-agriculture narrative punished Labour in 2017, when farmers marched in streets over proposed water taxes.

Ardern's administration has done little to ease suspicion and paranoia in the countryside, with a disappointing lack of focus on urban pollution, particularly transport.

Collins and Bridges' game of chicken could have more immediate and destablising consequences. Although not ideal for enduring policy change, James Shaw can still pass his bill without National. 

Climate change legislation is written into NZ First's coalition agreement with Labour. But as self-appointed champions of the provinces, Winston Peters' party is nervous about the methane target. Sources close to the negotiations say NZ First never put a hard number on what was acceptable. 

If Collins sees an advantage in dog-whistling to farmers, you can anticipate Peters has had the same thoughts. 

But if Shaw is forced to compromise (again) to secure NZ First's votes, his own Green party will never forgive him. 

So while the planet burns, New Zealand's most cynical politicians fiddle.