AUCKLAND — The resignation of New Zealand Labour Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came as a surprise to the country and, analysts say, could result in muddying the country’s already stilted progress on defense reform.

Former education and justice minister, Chris Hipkins, has taken over the leadership of the governing Labour Party, but there are concerns Ahern’s Jan. 19 resignation may accelerate the trend that started with the Covid-19 pandemic, whereby defense has become less of a priority as public health and the economy became the overwhelming concerns of the government.

Though unrelated to the change in prime minister, that concern is likely only to deepen, as the New Zealand Ministry of Defense told Breaking Defense that the completion of the first part of a new four-part defense review is being delayed for a second time.

Anton Youngman, deputy secretary at the Ministry of Defense told Breaking Defense the department “continues to progress the Defense Policy Review… . The Minister of Defense will be provided a Defense Policy and Strategy Statement and Future Force Design Principles for consideration by the middle of 2023.”

The latest delay could push the review up to nine months later than expected. Publication of the initial Defense Policy and Strategic Statement was already delayed from October 2022 to March 2023, whilst the Future Force Design Principles Statement was already pushed back from April to June, so it appears the first two parts of the review will now be published together.

The MoD still intends to complete the whole review on schedule by mid-2024. It is an important development in New Zealand’s defense posture. The Terms of Reference for the review that was announced in July 2022 were for the country to adopt a more pro-active stance in the Pacific region and move away from a focus on homeland defense — a considerable shift for New Zealand.

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However, an election is scheduled to take place on 14 October 2023 and the question is whether the governing Labour Party can secure a third term and remain in power to finish the review that it started and implement changes. The government has been focused on managing the global pandemic and now is turning to the risks of rising interest rates and inflation, so it’s losing focus on defense, analysts said.

“Defense policy is not going to be a priority in the next few months for the current government with a new leader,” Robert Ayson, professor of strategic studies at Victoria University in Wellington, told Breaking Defense.

However, the current defense minister is likely to stay in the post, providing some continuity, said Terry Johanson, a lecturer at the Centre for Defence and Security Studies at Massey University. “There is a review process already underway so whilst the timelines might be delayed they will continue with that,” he told Breaking Defense.

Ayson explained that the review process was designed to culminate in the publication of a Defence White Paper and Defence Capability Plan, so it was always going to span successive electoral cycles. However, he added that a change of party in government to a National Party-led administration could see a different emphasis on defense.

“National seem odds on favorites to be in government by the end of the year, barring an unforced own-goal by [opposition leader] Chris Luxon. However, we don’t have an awful lot to go on in terms of their approach to defense and how much they buy into Labour’s outlook,” Ayson said.

Ayson said that the National Party “tend to talk big on defense, but they tend not to actually move much on capability.” The last time a Labour Prime Minister was in power when a defense white paper was produced was 1987, when he said the party “certainly made a series of commitments to capability.”

Ardern’s government published a Strategic Policy Statement and Defense Capability Plan (DCP) during her first term and pushed through a series of capability investments that are just starting to bring fruit.

These include the 2018 decision to buy four P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to replace the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s six P-3K2 Orion aircraft and the 2020 sole source selection of the C-130-J tactical transport aircraft to replace its 50-year old C-130H planes. The P-8As will enter service this year with the C-130J to follow in 2024-25.

But Ayson said not all elements of the DCP will be pursued because it was ambitious and some parts “are going to be quietly delayed.” However, this will be the case whichever party is in government, he added.

“With National, who knows what their approach would be. We’re not talking about National overturning things in major ways. It’ll mainly be just timings and a slip in priorities, which might be a little less than they even are now,” Ayson said.

The office of the shadow defense minister, Tim van de Molen, told Breaking Defense that its priorities were to increase pay and living conditions, improve basic equipment and oppose any re-establishment of a combat air wing — called the Air Strike Force — in the Royal New Zealand Air Force.

Although the return of combat jets has been touted from time to time in the media over the past two decades, Johanson said that the return of combat jets to the Royal New Zealand Air Force is “not credible”.

No one suggested the National Party would change the terms of the review, and Johanson believes that if they get into government, while “they’d want to put their own stamp on it” in some way, they wouldn’t want to interfere too much in the review process.

The new defense review is likely to reinforce the Defence Assessment 2021 that acknowledged the impact of Great Power Competition in the Pacific and the threat of climate change. That would probably mean a change of emphasis by New Zealand towards developing relationships with Australia and the South Pacific. It is not clear if this will mean any new capabilities are ordered.

“I just don’t see what scope there will be for significant new capability coming out of this, because that would require going back to Cabinet and seeking additional resources at a time when I think that defense is not high on the pecking order,” Ayson said. “It’s more likely to be about reprioritization as opposed to major new investment, so that New Zealand can be a bigger player in the Pacific.”