Grounded aircraft, mothballed naval ships. The Defence Force has repeatedly warned the Government it has struggled to respond to even small-scale emergencies. But, as countries hike their defence spending, it’s not clear NZ can solve its woes with billion-dollar defence assets. Thomas Manch reports.

When Kabul, Afghanistan, fell to the Taliban and prompted a last-minute airlift effort to evacuate Western staff and allies, the Defence Force had a serious problem.

An “insidious” loss of capability.

Only two of five Air Force C130 Hercules planes could be deployed – but the age and maintenance requirements of these half-century-old planes meant this was constantly in doubt. There were no flyable Boeing planes, which are used to carry personnel and freight.

There were similar issues with the naval fleet: Two ships had been mothballed due to a lack of specialised staff, and three others were undergoing significant maintenance.

Hundreds of soldiers were locked away guarding managed isolation facilities. Within a month, there would be “no spare capacity” among air force and navy staff, for any unforeseen events.

Chief of Defence, Kevin Short, over the course of months, warned the defence minister that the Defence Force was facing serious shortfalls. At one point, it could only respond to “small localised emergences”, and even this was being challenged each day.

“There's a bit of a train crash happening in a way ... there's almost a simultaneous near-obsolescence of a range of major capabilities,” said Dr Robert Ayson, a professor of strategic studies at Victoria University.

The resource crunch was detailed in a series of briefings to Defence Minister Peeni Henare in the third quarter of 2021, obtained under the Official Information Act.

And the issues – shortfalls in working assets, ageing aircraft, and the introduction of resource-intensive new assets – have been compounded by an increasing number of staff quitting and the aftermath of “Operation Protect”, a near-two year isolation hotel guarding mission.

The crunch comes as New Zealand’s defence ally, Australia, partner countries and other global powers accelerate their defence spending in the face of rising geopolitical tension.

A recent study, published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said military spending across the globe exceeded $2113 billion in 2011, a record level. The United States, China, India, Russia and the United Kingdom were the largest spenders.

Does New Zealand need to get out the chequebook? The Government, well in advance of this month’s Budget, has strongly signalled it doesn’t want to.

Former defence ministers say it’s needed to fill the gaps in New Zealand’s military capability – but not all military-watchers agree.

“You're not going to solve these issues by simply getting [Finance Minister] Grant Robertson to say, 'oh, here's some more money’,” Ayson said.

A ‘confluence of issues’

Ayson said the Defence Force’s difficulty came from two factors: ageing equipment and the “substantial” transition to new aircraft and ships.

“What you've got is old and at times some of it isn't going to be able to be available. But also some of the availability is being pushed towards getting ready for the introduction those new platforms.

“The message to the Government here is that: In theory, you have a range of these choices to make about how you might respond to an unintended problem, but actually ... there are real limitations.”

A briefing to Henare in July 2021 highlighted the “forecast shortfalls” in the availability of assets.

The Air Force’s two Boeing aircraft were unavailable, and the two working C130 Hercules were of a condition that “on any given day” only one of them would be able to fly.

One of the three P-3K2 Orion surveillance planes which were operating was due to retire within weeks.

Of the Navy’s two frigates, or warships, the HMNZS Te Mana remained in Canada getting a re-fit, a process that began in 2019 and, after delays, is expected to be finish in mid-2022.

The HMNZS Te Kaha was planning a five-month trip to Asia to join major exercises with partner countries.

Ayson said, with the ability to deploy the “workhorse” Hercules in question and only one frigate available, the Government was left with “only a small range of deployable options”.

Further exacerbating the concern was maintenance and personnel issues. HMNZS Canterbury, a vessel which transports personnel and cargo, was receiving major maintenance in Singapore and would not be ready for work until mid-December.

A recently acquired dive vessel, the HMNZS Manawanui, was receiving significant maintenance and “capability enhancement” until mid-November.

Due to a lack of specialist staff, the HMNZS Otago, an offshore patrol vessel, was expected to be in “care and custody” – or mothballed – until February 2022. An inshore patrol vessel, the HMNZS Hawea, was similarly unavailable until August 28; afterward it could begin training.

The Navy’s second offshore patrol vessel, the HMNZS Wellington, was delivering Covid-19 vaccines to Tokelau and the Cook Islands.

“In short, the NZDF currently has the ability to respond to small localised emergencies only, and this capability is being challenged on a daily basis,” Short said, in a later September briefing about the impact of Operation Protect.

In this briefing, Short advised the minister that both the Air Force and Navy lacked “spare capacity” for any unforeseen event due the burden of managed isolation.

The only reason the mission to Afghanistan had been pulled off was because C130 Hercules crews had returned two weeks early from a training exercise, qualifying them for the mission.

A response to flooding on the West Coast in mid-July, which included 25 soldiers, five troop carrying vehicles and a NH90 helicopter, was “credible” but “not large”. It only occurred because the soldiers were “fortuitously” available between shifts at managed isolation facilities, Short said.

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Air Force staff were already in the United States to train on four new P-8A Poseidon surveillance planes, expected begin arriving in New Zealand in December 2022. To help with this, and the arrival of five C-130J Hercules from 2024, the Air Force was going to need hire 70 staff from aerospace firm Airbus.

The loss of capability was “insidious”, Short said.

Short was unavailable for an interview for this story. In a statement, a Defence Force spokesperson said the availability of defence assets could change from “day to day”.

The briefings from 2021 “reflected a time when there was a confluence of issues across multiple unrelated fleets (ships and aircraft) particularly in terms of transport fleets”.

Since that time, the Navy had deployed the HMNZS Wellington to the Solomon Islands, as well as to Tonga with the HMNZS Canterbury and Aotearoa to assist with the recovery after a volcanic explosion.

The Air Force’s transport aircraft were also in a “less fragile” state, the spokesperson said. For instance, Hercules planes conducted 22 missions to Pacific Islands in the past six months. One is now in Europe, helping transport supplies to aid Ukraine’s fight against Russia.

The billion(s) dollar question

The prior Labour-coalition Government did boost defence spending; $4.5 billion for purchases including the new Poseidon and Hercules aircraft, which will replace the ageing Orions and Hercules.

But the enthuiasm to keep spending, particularly on major assets, appears to have cooled. Henare promised throughout 2021 to redraw the Government’s Defence Capability Plan, which set out major asset purchases for decades to come.

The new plan has not yet been published, and Henare’s office did not respond to a question about this on Friday.

Henare has signalled that major purchases would be pushed out, but not necessarily cut. Instead, there wold be a focus on domestic infrastructure and “regrowing” out of the pandemic.

In March, the Ministry of Defence quietly “deferred” the purchase of a Southern Ocean patrol vessel, expected to cost up to $600m and be delivered by 2027. “Emerging personnel pressure from other projects” were cited among the reasons.

Ayson said the deferral was the Government saying: “We’ve got enough on our plate already”.

‘This is becoming a more serious issue’

He said the Defence Force faced an inherited problem – previous Governments led by both major parties deferring defence spending – not a budget problem. Money did not “automatically” provide capability.

“Is that going to address the personnel issues? Is that going to address this combination of obsolescence and new capabilities?”

But former defence minister Ron Mark, who produced the last Government’s Defence Capability Plan, said “you cannot keep pushing capabilities back” – such as the Southern Ocean patrol vessel.

“Government knows full well the problems being faced by the offshore patrol vessels in the Southern Ocean now, and that the problem has been exasperated by climate change.

“Everyone screams for defence when they want it, and they simply believe that you can magic up trained, professional, current, military people out of thin air in an instant when you want them. You can only magic them up if you've invested in them, and created them decades in advance.”

Dr Wayne Mapp, a defence minister in the 2008 National Government, said it was “unrealistic” to defer future purchases due to the current pressures.

“We just don't have enough reserve capability. And this is becoming a more serious issue as the world becomes more difficult.”

Both Mark and Mapp believe the Government need to hit a defence spending level of 2% of GDP – a benchmark NATO countries have committed to (New Zealand is not part of NATO).

“It’s not like you have to increase it to 2% tomorrow ... The money doesn’t get spent instantaneously, it’s a trajectory,” Mapp said.

The Government says New Zealand’s defence spending reached 1.54% in 2020, after its $4.5b investment.

Henare, speaking in April, said the idea of reaching 2% of GDP was “not useful” due to how New Zealand's GDP compared to other countries’.

"We continue to assess the defence and security matters, that have certainly changed rapidly in the past couple of years ... and we'll make sure that we can align our defence capabilities to those particular threats.”