New Zealand’s place in the world is increasingly threatened as the post-World War II international order collapses and a power shift between the United States and China squeezes countries in the middle.

This picture of a “turbulent” world comes from newly released briefings to new Cabinet ministers written by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT), the Defence Force, and intelligence agencies the Security Intelligence Service (SIS) and the Government Security Communications Bureau (GCSB).

MFAT has written of its concern about “new levels of disruption, disorder and risk”, which have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Many of the assumptions about global and regional affairs that have underpinned our foreign policy for the last 75 years are coming under real and sustained pressure,” the briefing reads.

“The post-World War II global order is receding and no new order is yet emerging to replace it. But it is clear that the future will not look like the recent past.”

Of particular concern to foreign policy were: the “power shifts” occurring between US and China, with a contest in trade and technology a key risk; a rules-based system under pressure from “country-first” political agendas; economic development stretching the planet’s limits, causing climate change; and increased protectionism impinging on open trade.

MFAT considered that New Zealand’s economic interests in the Indo-Pacific were secure; however, “politically there is less room for optimism”.

Major powers – the briefing did not specify which – were increasingly unwilling to let forums such as Apec and the East Asia Summit have a say in their strategic and economic interests.

Some commentary about New Zealand’s relationships has been redacted by the ministry.

“The US will continue to play a vital role in our security and prosperity. New Zealand’s relationship with China is significant, and multi-dimensional, but also enormously asymmetrical.”

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MFAT’s new minister, Nanaia Mahuta, may be required to travel abroad for meetings before New Zealand’s border restrictions are lifted, as the foreign service struggles to maintain its influence.

“It is getting harder for New Zealand’s voice to be heard in this environment and our influence will diminish over time," the briefing said.

“The biggest risk for New Zealand’s international influence is a scenario where a critical mass of countries resume physical meetings, including at foreign minister level, but New Zealand’s border restrictions remain.

“Over time, it may prove necessary for you to travel abroad for certain international meetings, even while our strict border measures remain in place. Your Australian counterpart, Marise Payne, has recently undertaken overseas visits.”

South China Sea

The Defence Force, in its briefing to the new minister of defence, Peeni Henare, said international rules-based order was under pressure and had been further strained by Covid-19.

“Competition will increasingly occur within a new grey zone paradigm where actors undertake activities methodically and incrementally to gain advantage or influence in areas of interest to them.”

Of strategic concern is the Pacific, which requires a “central focus”; the Korean Peninsula, which presents a risk as political and diplomatic interventions into North Korea’s missile tests have stalled; and China, which “seeks to restore claimed historical levels of influence”.

“The South China Sea is an increasingly contested space … China has created and extended multiple artificial island features in the Spratly and Paracel Islands upon which it has constructed bases. These posts now feature radar and communications arrays, airstrips and hangars, deep water harbours and weapons systems.”

Much of the commentary about the South China Sea was redacted, as was the Defence Force’s “forward programme” of work to come in early 2021.

National security

A briefing on national security and a joint paper from the SIS and GCSB did not provide much information beyond what was already known.

The SIS and GCSB briefing refers to the agencies reaching the end of a four-year period of investment and reorganisation, but the “priority investments” being made are redacted.

“The agencies’ submissions to Budget 2020 were informed by similar four-year investment options aimed at improving effectiveness and growth across all functions. Ultimately Budget 2020 provided the agencies with funding primarily towards costs pressures and major capabilities, with some limited growth in personnel numbers.”

The briefing, written for Police Minister Poto Williams, gives a view of the Security and Intelligence Board, one of the decision-making bodies that sets security priorities.

The board’s “priority risk areas” include foreign interference and espionage, terrorism, and the national security implications from the Covid-19 pandemic and the Government’s response to it.

“The Pacific region is a priority topic for 2020.”