Military analysts for a Swedish publication rated New Zealand one of the hardest countries in the world to invade. But "there are many subtle ways of attacking a country that fall short of military means", a security expert warns.
The article in the SvD Perfect Guide doesn't appear to be an in depth look at the issue. Other countries mentioned as being hard to invade include Switzerland, Australia, Iceland and Russia - which has actually been invaded quite a few times.
That said, the article is probably accurate about New Zealand. We're a long way from most countries and lack, at least as far as we know, anything of huge value. The country is also of limited strategic importance, except maybe as a staging post to the Southern Ocean and Antarctica
The Global Peace Index ranks New Zealand as the second-most peaceful country in the world - behind Iceland and ahead of Portugal - taking into account societal safety and security, ongoing domestic and international conflict and the level of militarisation.
Dr Paul Buchanan, director of 36th Parallel Assessments, said a ground assault on New Zealand would be a formidable undertaking and he doubted very much one would be launched.
"But we have a very small military ... We're not like the Cubans or the Swiss who have neighbourhood militias - the Swiss are armed to the teeth. Common citizens can take up arms and make the cost of invading much higher," Buchanan said.
"I don't know if the New Zealand citizenry is up to it, specially the millennials, I don't think they're of a mindset to shed blood in defence of the homeland."
In any case, an assault on New Zealand was likely to be mostly cyber, which would be effective in making people compliant.
"The first thing you're going to face is a massive cyber attack that will deny your military the ability to defend themselves."
The power grid could also be shut down, and government communications interrupted.
New Zealand was a classic case of a place that could be encircled and have its supply lines cut off. "Just have a maritime and air blockade and strangle us, and we would have to give in," Buchanan said.
"There are many subtle ways of attacking a country that fall short of military means," he said.
"If you are planting false narratives in the media and promoting a certain point of view that could be hostile to traditional values, and friendly to new emerging powers ... trying to disrupt traditional ties that bind say New Zealand, Australia and the US," Buchanan said.
"The motive would be to replace them with a narrative sympathetic to other powers. The Chinese always come up in these discussions, but they aren't the only ones. A lot of actors are playing the influence game."
Buchanan raised the possibility New Zealand could get sucked into a dispute over the South China Sea.
"I'm beginning to think we will eventually see a hot war there; maybe small but someone's going to start shooting at someone. That's going to drag in a lot of other players."
Latest developments from that area, as reported in the Sydney Morning Herald, include China landing heavy bombers on an island in the South China Sea, and installing anti-ship and anti-aircraft cruise missiles on some islands.
That's despite other countries in the region claiming the islands, and negotiations supposedly under way to prevent such escalation.
If New Zealand were to get sucked into a hot war in the South China Sea, the Chinese could go after targets in this country such as listening posts for the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Buchanan said.
"That's in the realm of the possible. You wouldn't have to invade to make the point we should stay out."
Update from Nighthawk.NZ
The deforce has been going through a modernisation program for a few years and as we know the Defence Capability Plan 2019 (DCP 2019) was released in June 2019 adding more to the shopping list as well as answering some question. The DCP 2019 answers many of the questions people have been asking of what the 20 Billion dollars over 15 years will be spent on. This 20 billion is over and above the defence budget and most of it is replacing aging equipment.
The Air Force has the modern helo's NH-90 and the A-109 and the T-6C Texan II trainer but with its wing hardpoints can be used in limited ground attack. The replacements of the aging Lockheed Martin P-3K2's Orions and the Lockheed Martin C-130H's Hercules with the Boeing P-8 Poseidon & the Lockheed Martin C-130J Super Hercules. In the near future, the Boeing B-757 will be replaced around 2027/28 and Long-Range Unmanned Drones will complement the P-8's in maritime patrol.
Communications IFF and other systems will continuously be upgraded as new technology becomes available.
The Navy has received HMNZS Aotearoa our new Polar-class sustainment vessel built by Hyundai Heavy Industries. Aotearoa is a purpose-built, technologically enhanced asset that adds real value to our combat operations, humanitarian relief functions and operational and training support. Her primary mission is to provide global sustainment to New Zealand and coalition maritime, land and air units, and United Nations security operations through resupply of ship and aviation fuel, dry goods, water, spare parts and ammunition.
The Navy has also received HMNZS Manawanui III diving support, hydrographic and deep-sea salvage Litoral vessel. The ship provides our Navy with the ability to conduct a range of specialist diving, salvage, and hydrography tasks around New Zealand and across the southwest Pacific.
As part of the DCP 2019, the navy decommissioned 2 of the IPV's to make room for a dedicated Southern Ocean Patrol Vessel (SOPV) to be in service around 2028.
However, the most notable injection is a second enhanced sealift vessel with more capability than HMNZS Canterbury. The new vessel will carry more equipment, more helo's and operate of UAV's, carry more troops and to have the planning and hospital facilities available but most notably it will have a well dock. To be able to squeeze all this into a vessel, the new sealift vessel will have to be a large LPD, or a small LHD. And importantly the budget given to this is more than 1 billion dollars for a vessel
Finally, HMNZS Canterbury will be replaced around 2030 with a second enhanced sealift vessel. This vessel is not necessarily the same type or cost as the first vessel, as a budget will be given closer to the time as well what the navy requires.
The frigates are currently undergoing weapons, sensors and system updates, and will be replaced in the mid 2030's (ish) and again no decisions have be made on what vessel type. There is talk of NZ being in the Type 26 program, however, I believe it to be more like the Type 31 less capable and cheaper, but still a capable frigate.
The Seasprite's to be replaced around 2028 with an unknown anti-submarine helo which will be decided closer to the time.
The Army has not been left out, they have received new kit as well, the MHOV MANN trucks, the Javelin anti-tank missile, new personal weapons Lewis Machine and Tools’ Modular Assault Rifle System – Light (MARS-L) replacing the older Steyr aug, Barrett M107A1 Anti-Materiel Rifle, Barrett MRAD (Multi-Role, Adaptive Design) Sniper Rifle and the Direct Fire Support Weapon (Area) DFSW(A) H&K 40mm Grenade Machine Gun.
Recently the Polaris MRZR and Bushmaster were purchased for the NZSAS and recently 43 Bushmaters for the regular army replacing the armored variant of the Pinzgauers. The NZLAV III will be either replaced or upgraded, request for tender 2025 and introduction into service 2033.
Satellite and network capabilities will be upgraded and various minor other upgrades a contemporary replacement or upgrade for the New Zealand Army’s anti-armour weapon, the FGM-148 Javelin missile. Further investment in specialised Special Operations Forces combat vehicles in the late 2020s. Various refreshes of minor New Zealand Army equipment, including soldier systems, to ensure that the New Zealand Army remains a properly resourced land combat force.
