The New Zealand-China relationship may come under pressure if Joe Biden wins the US presidency as he’s expected to push Pacific allies to take a harder line against the rising superpower.
The Democratic presidential candidate appeared likely to win the US presidency on Thursday evening, as he neared a majority in several key swing states. President Donald Trump baselessly alleged voter fraud had occurred, and his campaign filed lawsuits to stop vote counting in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Trump has been a destabilising force for US foreign policy, announcing a withdrawal of troops from Syria on Twitter, pulling out from trade agreements, climate change accords and international bodies including the World Health Organisation, and escalated a trade war with China.
In many of these areas, Trump has been prepared to go it alone, forgoing multilateralism to push his own agenda. His approach has contravened international norms and forced allied governments to perform diplomatic gymnastics.
But a Biden presidency would maintain the tough approach to China, while potentially bringing different problems.
It has been touted as a return to more conventional US foreign policy that would favour traditional alliances. But in New Zealand, experts say that Biden could push New Zealand’s relationship with China to more “zero-sum” moments.
Associate professor David Capie, the director of Victoria University’s Centre for Strategic Studies, said China’s rise had challenged the status quo across Asia and the Pacific, regions where strategic dominance had been beneficial to the US and its allies for decades.
"We're seeing a more assert China willing to push the boundaries in terms of the sovereignty of its neighbours,” he said.
A Biden administration would not mark a “radical shift” in the US approach to China, but it would be more organised, more persuasive, and more willing to ask allies and partners to assist in competition with China, he said.
"The Trump administration has been so disorganised and chaotic, and so erratic, that for some countries it's been you can keep your head down and avoid being dragged into some of the sharper aspects of this competition,” Capie said.
“There are going to be some aspects of the US-China relationship over the next few years that are going to force New Zealand towards some more zero-sum decision points ... where you have to make a clearer choice,” he said.
New Zealand might be asked to speak out more against China, to align with the US perspective in international institutions, or – at the “sharper end” – work closely on maritime operations in the Pacific or in the contentious South China Sea.
Dr Anna Powles, senior lecturer of security studies at Massey University, said under a President Biden, there would likely be more pressure on New Zealand to align with the US position on China in the Pacific.
"There already is pressure to do so, but because the foreign policy coming out of Washington has been quite contradictory and confusing, that has allowed New Zealand to practice a degree of strategic ambiguity,” she said.
While the Trump administration has urged allies to follow its lead on issues like excluding Huawei Technologies from its systems, it hasn’t waited to act in concert with traditional partners.
Biden is more likely to try to forge a united front, so a more consistent foreign policy approach from Biden may lead to more requests of New Zealand, as part of the US focus on the Pacific, called the “Pacific Pledge”.
"A Biden administration is likely to lead to a much more joined-up approach [within the US Government], and that will likely lead to more requests from New Zealand and Australia -- and that's a concern in terms of how it will play out in the Pacific,” Powles said.
This could complicate New Zealand’s relations with Pacific Island nations which weren’t as willing to counter China’s influence in the Pacific.
But a renewed focus on climate change policy that could come under Biden would be “a real positive”, and would be welcomed in the Pacific, she said.
