ANALYSIS: NZ First voters would have preferred National to be in Government than Labour by a large margin, newly released survey results say.
The new public survey data shows 44.5 per cent of NZ First voters answered "National" when asked to pick between Labour and National leading the Government, with Labour 10 points behind at 34.1 per cent.
Another 15.4 per cent answered "Neither" while 5.7 per cent said they didn't know.
The data comes from the New Zealand Election Study, an academic survey of over 3000 voters completed shortly after the election, which asks a long series of questions to get a much richer picture of voter feelings.
The full data set was released online recently. It features over 200 validated voters who said they voted for NZ First, and its results are scientifically weighted based on the actual makeup of the population and the results of the election.
The country as a whole also backed National over Labour when asked in the survey, but by a tighter margin of 47.3 per cent to 42.2 per cent.
NZ First voters also said they would rather have then-leader of the National Party Bill English as Prime Minister than Labour leader Jacinda Ardern, 29 per cent to 17.7 per cent. NZ First leader Winston Peters was the clear favourite as prime minister, however, with 33.7 per cent support.
There is an interesting twist to the data though, because the survey period stretched across the time before and after Government formation, and it can be split off to see how voters reacted to the change.
NZ First voters prior to Peters choosing Labour are much more supportive of National, with roughly twice as many picking National to Labour. That flips after the Government is formed, with 48.42 per cent supporting Labour and 33.35 per cent supporting National.
In general, NZ First voters viewed themselves as more centrist than the rest of the population.
Asked to rate their politics on a 10-point scale from left to right, 35.7 per cent placed themselves at the centre of "5" - compared to 19.7 per cent of the general population.
A general lean towards social conservatism is visible in other questions asked by the massive survey.
NZ First voters were more likely than the general population to strongly or somewhat agree with the statement "society would be better off if women stayed home with children.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, NZ First voters rated "immigration" as the most pressing issue of the election in far greater numbers than the rest of the population, with over a fifth of them rating it as the number one issue, compared to just over five per cent of the general population.
Health and housing were the other pressing issues named by large amounts of NZ First votes, but were also named by many other voters.
NZ First voters were also more likely to strongly disagree that policies were needed to reduce emissions.
Climate change policy has been a particular hot point for the coalition.
NZ First were one of the main reasons the Zero Carbon Act was massively delayed, and are now understood to be stalling efforts to get agriculture into the Emissions Trading Scheme.
